The MercadoLibre Paradox
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Over the past five years, MercadoLibre has grown both revenue and profit dramatically — yet its stock price has gone nowhere. Could this be an opportunity?
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Insights Blog
News, insights and thought leadership from the City Different team.
The MercadoLibre Paradox
What Investing Can Teach Us About March Madness
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We've officially entered my absolute favorite time of the sports calendar year. As millions of others around the country have done this past week, I sat down to fill out my bracket for the annual Van...
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Are Treasuries Still Safe?
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Since April, I've had a lot of conversations about whether Treasuries are still a viable safe haven investment. After “Liberation Day,” 10-year Treasuries sold off by ~50 basis points, creating a...
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Call off the Recession Warnings
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WEEK ENDING 7/28/2023 Highlights of the week: Fed hikes rates another 25 basis points putting policy range at 5.25% – 5.50%. Powell still focused on inflation that remains higher than 2% goal....
The Summer of Strikes
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WEEK ENDING 7/21/2023 Highlights of the week: A quiet week for the markets awaiting Fed’s July rate decision and the latest inflation read. You cannot make this stuff up! MTG with Hunter Biden nudes,...
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Inflation on the Run
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WEEK ENDING 7/14/2023 Highlights of the week: Is inflation on the run? Why are consumers more confident? “Thank you for your service.”
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More Fireworks
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WEEK ENDING 7/7/2023 Highlights of the week: We celebrated the 4th of July last week, but the real fireworks were on the 6th. Money funds are seeing all the love. Members in the House are fighting...
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Russian Weekend
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WEEK ENDING 6/23/2023 Highlights of the week: A short-lived revolt in Russia over the weekend could cause even more market volatility. As the world gets scarier, remember that fear is never a good...
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Recession Status?
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WEEK ENDING 6/9/2023 Highlights of the week: Market expects a temporary pause from the Fed this Wednesday. What’s the status of the recession?
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When to hold 'em and when to fold 'em
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WEEK ENDING 6/2/2023 Highlights of the week: We hope everyone had a great Memorial Day weekend. Yay! The United States did not default on its debt. But we had to endure an ugly kabuki dance to get...
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Debt Ceiling Debate Continues 5/22/23
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WEEK ENDING 5/19/2023 Highlights of the week: Soft landing still a possibility. June rate hike slowly being put back on the table. Is it a good time to buy bonds?
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What's in your money market fund? 5/15/23
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WEEK ENDING 5/12/2023 Highlights of the week: Cash flow into money market funds continues. Know what’s in your money market fund. Latest data shows inflation moderating but still a long way off the...
Pause Pivot or Persevere 5/8/23
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WEEK ENDING 5/5/2023 Highlights of the week: Fed hikes rates by 25 bases points as expected—Powell leaves the door open for June pause. On Friday, non-farm payroll rose by 253,000. What does a brief...
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Stagflation 5/1/23
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WEEK ENDING 4/28/2023 Highlights of the week: First Republic Bank is circling the bowl. Inflation is sticky! Unemployment is rising! Growth is slowing! Are stagflation risks increasing?
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Credit Crunch 4/24/23
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WEEK ENDING 4/21/2023 Highlights of the week: Is this the start of a credit crunch? Health of corporate credits is deteriorating. US economy is stalling, but not yet in a recession.
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"Wait And See"
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WEEK ENDING 4/14/2023 Highlights of the week: “Sticky prices” show no improvement in latest consumer price index. Another 25 basis points priced in for Fed’s May meeting. But what after that? Yield...
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The Vol Continues
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WEEK ENDING 4/6/2023 Highlights of the week: Inflation may be slowing but is still above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. Will inflation prove sticky, forcing the Fed to change its target and...
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Supercore
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WEEK ENDING 3/31/2023 Highlights of the week: 2% inflation: an outdated concept. Federal Reserve close to ending most aggressive interest rate hikes. CDI expects one more rate hike in May and then a...
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Buckle up for a wild ride
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WEEK ENDING 3/24/2023 Highlights of the week: J. Thaddeus Toad would like to welcome you to another wild ride: the fixed-income market. Domestic and international banks have grabbed the headlines for...
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Banking Failures
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WEEK ENDING 3/17/2023 Highlights of the week: Condolences to all of you with busted NCAA brackets; maybe not the only things busted… Our overview of the idiosyncratic banking failures and Bank Term...
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The Bailout
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WEEK ENDING 3/10/2023 Highlights of the week: Silicon Valley Bank fails due to poor diversification in its depositor base and too much duration in its fixed-income portfolio. We do not believe this...
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BEAR OR BULL?
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WEEK ENDING 3/3/2023 Highlights of the week: As we await March’s data, we make cases for both bull and bear markets. The case for bear: a “reacceleration in interest rate hikes.” The case for bull: a...
FIXED INCOME MARKET INSIGHTS 2/27/23
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WEEK ENDING 2/24/2023 Highlights of the week: The markets are giving up positive returns for Lent. Inflation proves a pesky little bugger. A smart reader asked why we haven’t commented on the...
FIXED INCOME MARKET INSIGHTS 2/21/23
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WEEK ENDING 2/17/2023 Highlights of the week: Where is the recession? Federal Reserve is chasing neutral rate, and the market is catching up. Friday marks one year of the Russia-Ukraine war.
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FIXED INCOME MARKET INSIGHTS 2/13/23
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WEEK ENDING 2/10/2023 Highlights of the week: Chairman Powell stated disinflation “has begun” and added a big “but.” The Greek chorus of Fed officials that spoke in the week following Chairman Powell...
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FIXED INCOME MARKET INSIGHTS 2/6/23
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WEEK ENDING 2/3/2023 Highlights of the week: The Fed raised its targeted short-term rate by 0.25%. Chairman Powell’s message has been consistent since his Jackson Hole speech last summer. Why does...
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FIXED INCOME MARKET INSIGHTS 1/30/23
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WEEK ENDING 1/27/2023 Highlights of the week: This is a big economic week, with a 25-bps rate hike baked in for Wednesday. A complex economic picture makes the Federal Reserve's job extremely...