The MercadoLibre Paradox
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Over the past five years, MercadoLibre has grown both revenue and profit dramatically — yet its stock price has gone nowhere. Could this be an opportunity?
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Insights Blog
News, insights and thought leadership from the City Different team.
The MercadoLibre Paradox
What Investing Can Teach Us About March Madness
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We've officially entered my absolute favorite time of the sports calendar year. As millions of others around the country have done this past week, I sat down to fill out my bracket for the annual Van...
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Are Treasuries Still Safe?
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Since April, I've had a lot of conversations about whether Treasuries are still a viable safe haven investment. After “Liberation Day,” 10-year Treasuries sold off by ~50 basis points, creating a...
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Dive Into Markets Adjusting and Repricing
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WEEK ENDING 2/9/2024 Fed still set on cutting rates this year despite strong economy and slowing inflation. Investment Grade Corporate Bond Market repricing to new rate cuts scenario. Banks expect...
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"Shake it Off"
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WEEK ENDING 2/2/2024 Fed takes March easing off the table, and the market buries it. Friday’s jobs report does not reflect a slowing economy. Republicans and their pundits could be picking on the...
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The World Stage Grows Grimmer
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WEEK ENDING 1/26/2024 GDP and core PCE data trends in the right direction. Fed meets this week with no expectations of rate cuts. Hong Kong judge orders China’s Evergrande to liquidate.
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The January Effect Continues
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WEEK ENDING 1/19/2024 Year-end wishful thinking dissolves, and it’s about time. Probabilities fade for significant March rate cuts. The voters of Iowa have spoken.
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What Could Go Wrong in the Economy?
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WEEK ENDING 1/12/2024 Treasury curve continues to steepen. Noisy CPI numbers for December; dovish PPI. What could go wrong in the economy? Municipal bonds heading into a challenging environment.
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Jobs, JOLTS, and Newly Realistic Markets
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WEEK ENDING 1/5/2024 We hope everyone had great holidays! Fixed income and equity markets continued year-end rallies. Realism befalls the markets in the first days of 2024.
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Turtle-dovish Fed
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WEEK ENDING 12/15/2023 Holiday markets rally after turtle-dovish message from Fed. Fed hints tightening finished; cuts to come. Dot plot changes significantly. Happy holidays to you, and a fantastic...
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Naughty or Nice
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WEEK ENDING 12/08/2023 Will Chairman Powell bring coal to the holiday party? The market has made the Fed’s job tougher! This week’s Fed meeting and inflation reports may add volatility to the holiday...
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A Santa Claus Rally?
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WEEK ENDING 12/01/2023 Chair Powell tries to calm fixed-income markets. 60% probability of a Q1 rate cut. Hostages released during last week's Israeli-Hamas cease-fire.
Taking a Pause to Give Thanks
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WEEK ENDING 11/17/2023 Fed’s dovish tone and positive inflation data knock yields off their peak. Government debt sales continue to climb. Happy Thanksgiving! “Thankfully,” we’re taking a pause from...
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Same Line, Different Speaker
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WEEK ENDING 11/10/2023 Moody’s moves US sovereign outlook to “negative.” Market participants’ outlooks and opinions mixed. Honoring our veterans.
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A Kindler Gentler Fed?
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WEEK ENDING 11/03/2023 A kinder, gentler Fed? Color us suspicious. A slowing jobs picture? What does it all mean for inflation?
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Trick or Treat? Hard or Soft Landing?
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WEEK ENDING 10/27/2023 Market focus shifting away from the Federal Reserve A primer on the tension between monetary and fiscal policies Return of the soft landing v. hard landing debate
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Now's the Time for Risk Tolerant Investors
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WEEK ENDING 10/20/2023 Chair Powell says inflation is too high, recommitting to a 2% target. “Slow” Joe Biden has a good week, garnering compliments from the unlikeliest sources. Jim Jordan taps out...
Geopolitical Risk Increases
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WEEK ENDING 10/13/2023 Rising geopolitical risk adds another consideration for the Federal Reserve. Supercore inflation is double the Fed's target. Yields rise in long end of the curve; tightens...
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Is it Time to Take Risks?
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WEEK ENDING 10/6/2023 McCarthy ousted as inmates take over the asylum. Fixed-income yields continue to move higher; investors leave bond funds for the safety of money market funds. Is this the moment...
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Congress Kicks the Can
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WEEK ENDING 9/29/2023 Government shutdown postponed until November 17. Will September PCE give Fed a reason to pause? September Muni yield backup led to underperformance; current yield attractive.
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The House is on Fire
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WEEK ENDING 9/22/2023 Fed reinforces “higher for longer.” Out with the new normal, in with the old. The House is burning.
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Fed Passes on Rate Rise Question
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WEEK ENDING 9/15/2023 A Fed meeting this Wednesday, but all eyes are on 2024. Brent crude prices could make for a scary Halloween. Is the US economy on a path to a soft landing?
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We Remember
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WEEK ENDING 9/8/2023 Today is the 22nd anniversary of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks; here are a few things we are thinking about today: This was the deadliest attack on U.S. soil in our nation’s...
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The Rodeo Came to Jackson Hole
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WEEK ENDING 8/25/2023 Highlights of the week: The rodeo came to Jackson Hole last week. Important economic data is hitting this week. China's stimulus fails to get investors excited.
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A Snake in Country Garden
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WEEK ENDING 8/18/2023 Highlights of the week: Treasury continues to bring big supply to the market. China has another real estate problem: a snake in Country Garden. This time, maybe it will be...
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Supply Fears Grip the Fixed Income Markets
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WEEK ENDING 8/11/2023 Highlights of the week: Inflation data mixed, with expectations of the Fed being on hold in September Treasury continues to bring big supply to the market China has a liquidity...
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Tempest in a Teapot
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WEEK ENDING 8/4/2023 Highlights of the week: U.S. Government Bond rating downgraded to AA+ by Fitch — a tempest in a teapot. Treasury rates increased but not because of the downgrade. Former...