News, insights and thought leadership from the City Different team.
.png)
At dinner the other night, my youngest daughter asked what I actually do all day in my office. I work from home pretty often, so from her perspective, I just disappear behind a closed door for hours...
.png)
No one likes an alarmist know-it-all (except maybe the folks riding Michael Burry’s coattails through the 2008 financial collapse… but even a lot of those folks thought he had lost his mind). I know...
Everywhere you look right now, headlines seem dour: the dollar is weakening, inflation is simmering, geopolitics are rocky (at best)... it’s enough to worry even seasoned investors. But there’s...
.png)
WEEK ENDING 3/15/2024 • Higher than expected core CPI and PPI. • FOMC should leave rates unchanged on Wednesday. • What’s a better buy? A 3-year T-bill or a money market fund?
.png)
WEEK ENDING 3/8/2024 • Impressive employment numbers. • One year anniversary of Silicon Valley Bank’s failure. • Will the Muni-Treasury ratios come back to their historical averages?
WEEK ENDING 3/1/2024 • Core PCE meets expectations. • Fed Chair to testify before Congress this week. • Why is the consumer still unhappy?
.png)
WEEK ENDING 2/23/2024 • Fed speakers lay out slow-and-steady rate policy. • Market reprices 2024 rate cuts. • Where is the new terminal or neutral rate for fed funds?
.png)
WEEK ENDING 2/16/2024 Inflation does not move in a straight line. There is still a lot of cash sloshing around the system. Congress takes two-week vacation with foreign aid on their desks and...
.png)
WEEK ENDING 2/9/2024 Fed still set on cutting rates this year despite strong economy and slowing inflation. Investment Grade Corporate Bond Market repricing to new rate cuts scenario. Banks expect...
.png)
WEEK ENDING 2/2/2024 Fed takes March easing off the table, and the market buries it. Friday’s jobs report does not reflect a slowing economy. Republicans and their pundits could be picking on the...
.png)
WEEK ENDING 1/26/2024 GDP and core PCE data trends in the right direction. Fed meets this week with no expectations of rate cuts. Hong Kong judge orders China’s Evergrande to liquidate.
.png)
WEEK ENDING 1/19/2024 Year-end wishful thinking dissolves, and it’s about time. Probabilities fade for significant March rate cuts. The voters of Iowa have spoken.
.png)
WEEK ENDING 1/12/2024 Treasury curve continues to steepen. Noisy CPI numbers for December; dovish PPI. What could go wrong in the economy? Municipal bonds heading into a challenging environment.
.png)
WEEK ENDING 1/5/2024 We hope everyone had great holidays! Fixed income and equity markets continued year-end rallies. Realism befalls the markets in the first days of 2024.
.png)
WEEK ENDING 12/15/2023 Holiday markets rally after turtle-dovish message from Fed. Fed hints tightening finished; cuts to come. Dot plot changes significantly. Happy holidays to you, and a fantastic...
.png)
WEEK ENDING 12/08/2023 Will Chairman Powell bring coal to the holiday party? The market has made the Fed’s job tougher! This week’s Fed meeting and inflation reports may add volatility to the holiday...
.png)
WEEK ENDING 12/01/2023 Chair Powell tries to calm fixed-income markets. 60% probability of a Q1 rate cut. Hostages released during last week's Israeli-Hamas cease-fire.
WEEK ENDING 11/17/2023 Fed’s dovish tone and positive inflation data knock yields off their peak. Government debt sales continue to climb. Happy Thanksgiving! “Thankfully,” we’re taking a pause from...
.png)
WEEK ENDING 11/10/2023 Moody’s moves US sovereign outlook to “negative.” Market participants’ outlooks and opinions mixed. Honoring our veterans.
.png)
WEEK ENDING 11/03/2023 A kinder, gentler Fed? Color us suspicious. A slowing jobs picture? What does it all mean for inflation?
.png)
WEEK ENDING 10/27/2023 Market focus shifting away from the Federal Reserve A primer on the tension between monetary and fiscal policies Return of the soft landing v. hard landing debate
.png)
WEEK ENDING 10/20/2023 Chair Powell says inflation is too high, recommitting to a 2% target. “Slow” Joe Biden has a good week, garnering compliments from the unlikeliest sources. Jim Jordan taps out...
WEEK ENDING 10/13/2023 Rising geopolitical risk adds another consideration for the Federal Reserve. Supercore inflation is double the Fed's target. Yields rise in long end of the curve; tightens...
.png)
WEEK ENDING 10/6/2023 McCarthy ousted as inmates take over the asylum. Fixed-income yields continue to move higher; investors leave bond funds for the safety of money market funds. Is this the moment...
.png)
WEEK ENDING 9/29/2023 Government shutdown postponed until November 17. Will September PCE give Fed a reason to pause? September Muni yield backup led to underperformance; current yield attractive.
.png)
WEEK ENDING 9/22/2023 Fed reinforces “higher for longer.” Out with the new normal, in with the old. The House is burning.
.png)
WEEK ENDING 9/15/2023 A Fed meeting this Wednesday, but all eyes are on 2024. Brent crude prices could make for a scary Halloween. Is the US economy on a path to a soft landing?
