The MercadoLibre Paradox
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Over the past five years, MercadoLibre has grown both revenue and profit dramatically — yet its stock price has gone nowhere. Could this be an opportunity?
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Insights Blog
News, insights and thought leadership from the City Different team.
The MercadoLibre Paradox
What Investing Can Teach Us About March Madness
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We've officially entered my absolute favorite time of the sports calendar year. As millions of others around the country have done this past week, I sat down to fill out my bracket for the annual Van...
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Are Treasuries Still Safe?
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Since April, I've had a lot of conversations about whether Treasuries are still a viable safe haven investment. After “Liberation Day,” 10-year Treasuries sold off by ~50 basis points, creating a...
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Another Turkey Drop?
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WEEK ENDING 8/16/2024 Won’t you please come to Chicago for the Democratic National Convention? Or please come to Jackson Hole for a sign. “As God is my witness, I thought turkeys could fly.”
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Diversification Matters
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WEEK ENDING 8/9/2024 Diversification matters The market’s implied probabilities of future events are often wrong We’ll miss the 2024 Olympics – sure beats politics
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Gold-medal Advice for Market Volatility
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WEEK ENDING 8/2/2024 Welcome home, Paul Whelan, Evan Gershkovich, and Alsu Kurmasheva Paris took center stage… Until the jobs report spoiled the party, that is.
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Goldilocks
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WEEK ENDING 7/26/2024 Goldilocks data before the Fed meets Wednesday GDP at 2.8% in Q2, thanks to strong consumer spending A brief overview of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
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Biden's Exit
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WEEK ENDING 7/19/2024 President Biden drops out of the presidential race. Like The Who, we “Won’t Get Fooled Again” — though it seems a rate cut is in the offing. “Won’t you please come to Chicago...
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Cooling Inflation
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WEEK ENDING 7/12/2024 June’s cooling CPI makes the case for lower inflation. Probability of a Fed September rate cut of 25 basis point is currently at 95%. Former President Trump attacked at a rally.
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Debates
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WEEK ENDING 7/5/2024 When will the Fed make its next move? Costs of avoiding the “Cash Trap” are on the rise. Try not to laugh: “His Highness, the President of the United States of America and...
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Summer Heats Up
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WEEK ENDING 6/21/2024 A midyear review of investment grade corporates Softening consumer data Happy Independence Day (a bit early)
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Higher-for-longer
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WEEK ENDING 6/14/2024 Higher-for-longer tested by recent economic reports Supreme Court for sale CDI wishes all dads a Happy Father’s Day
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Landmark Election Year
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WEEK ENDING 6/7/2024 Wednesday doubleheader: CPI data release and Fed meeting. Strong labor market dampens probability of July rate cut. Landmark election year for the world.
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The Unknown
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WEEK ENDING 5/31/2024 “I just don’t know.” Municipal bond market underperforms prior to seasonal summer drought. 34–0
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The Receipts Are In
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WEEK ENDING 5/17/2024 Core CPI increases by 0.3%; softer after higher inflation prints in Q1. Receipts come back with lower retail sales numbers. Three paths to monetary policy: hold, ease, or ease....
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Calm Before the Economic Storm
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WEEK ENDING 5/10/2024 Happy belated Mother's Day from all of us at City Different Investments. A very quiet week on the economic release front. Next week brings another look at CPI and PPI. Mike...
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The Pendulum Swings
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WEEK ENDING 5/3/2024 Weekly rate volatility—markets tend to overreact. How do you unite Democrats and Republicans? A job nobody should want.
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Stubborn Inflation
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WEEK ENDING 4/26/2024 Real GDP growth slower than expected at 1.6% for Q1. Core PCE for the year is unchanged at 2.8%. Market pushes the probability of rate cuts (if any) to the end of the year.
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A Week of High Supply
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WEEK ENDING 4/19/2024 Resetting rate-cut expectations. 18 months of yield curve inversion. Will 10-year Treasury yields hit a 5% handle?
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Is Now the Time for Bonds?
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WEEK ENDING 4/12/2024 Hope springs eternal and dies hard. Equity market declines and rising Middle East tensions aid Treasury’s end-of-week recovery. Back to the future, at least in Arizona.
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Spring Showers and Tax Season
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WEEK ENDING 4/5/2024 New support level for Treasury market with 10-year yields at 4.5%. Strong job numbers from Friday challenge rate cuts. April tax seasonality generally means outflow for money...
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Burning Down the House
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WEEK ENDING 3/22/2024 We will not be publishing a Weekly Commentary next week. We wish you all a happy holiday! The Capitol Hill Greatest Hits: “Another One Bites the Dust” & “Burning Down the House”...
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Surprising Inflation Numbers
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WEEK ENDING 3/15/2024 • Higher than expected core CPI and PPI. • FOMC should leave rates unchanged on Wednesday. • What’s a better buy? A 3-year T-bill or a money market fund?
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State of the Markets
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WEEK ENDING 3/8/2024 • Impressive employment numbers. • One year anniversary of Silicon Valley Bank’s failure. • Will the Muni-Treasury ratios come back to their historical averages?
Decoding Consumer Dilemmas in a Strong Economy
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WEEK ENDING 3/1/2024 • Core PCE meets expectations. • Fed Chair to testify before Congress this week. • Why is the consumer still unhappy?
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Slow and Steady Wins the Race
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WEEK ENDING 2/23/2024 • Fed speakers lay out slow-and-steady rate policy. • Market reprices 2024 rate cuts. • Where is the new terminal or neutral rate for fed funds?
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The Market Breaks Hearts
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WEEK ENDING 2/16/2024 Inflation does not move in a straight line. There is still a lot of cash sloshing around the system. Congress takes two-week vacation with foreign aid on their desks and...