The MercadoLibre Paradox
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Over the past five years, MercadoLibre has grown both revenue and profit dramatically — yet its stock price has gone nowhere. Could this be an opportunity?
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City Different Investments
The MercadoLibre Paradox
What Investing Can Teach Us About March Madness
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We've officially entered my absolute favorite time of the sports calendar year. As millions of others around the country have done this past week, I sat down to fill out my bracket for the annual Van...
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Are Treasuries Still Safe?
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Since April, I've had a lot of conversations about whether Treasuries are still a viable safe haven investment. After “Liberation Day,” 10-year Treasuries sold off by ~50 basis points, creating a...
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Burning Down the House
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WEEK ENDING 3/22/2024 We will not be publishing a Weekly Commentary next week. We wish you all a happy holiday! The Capitol Hill Greatest Hits: “Another One Bites the Dust” & “Burning Down the House”...
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Surprising Inflation Numbers
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WEEK ENDING 3/15/2024 • Higher than expected core CPI and PPI. • FOMC should leave rates unchanged on Wednesday. • What’s a better buy? A 3-year T-bill or a money market fund?
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State of the Markets
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WEEK ENDING 3/8/2024 • Impressive employment numbers. • One year anniversary of Silicon Valley Bank’s failure. • Will the Muni-Treasury ratios come back to their historical averages?
Decoding Consumer Dilemmas in a Strong Economy
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WEEK ENDING 3/1/2024 • Core PCE meets expectations. • Fed Chair to testify before Congress this week. • Why is the consumer still unhappy?
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Slow and Steady Wins the Race
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WEEK ENDING 2/23/2024 • Fed speakers lay out slow-and-steady rate policy. • Market reprices 2024 rate cuts. • Where is the new terminal or neutral rate for fed funds?
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The Market Breaks Hearts
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WEEK ENDING 2/16/2024 Inflation does not move in a straight line. There is still a lot of cash sloshing around the system. Congress takes two-week vacation with foreign aid on their desks and...
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Dive Into Markets Adjusting and Repricing
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WEEK ENDING 2/9/2024 Fed still set on cutting rates this year despite strong economy and slowing inflation. Investment Grade Corporate Bond Market repricing to new rate cuts scenario. Banks expect...
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"Shake it Off"
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WEEK ENDING 2/2/2024 Fed takes March easing off the table, and the market buries it. Friday’s jobs report does not reflect a slowing economy. Republicans and their pundits could be picking on the...
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The World Stage Grows Grimmer
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WEEK ENDING 1/26/2024 GDP and core PCE data trends in the right direction. Fed meets this week with no expectations of rate cuts. Hong Kong judge orders China’s Evergrande to liquidate.
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The January Effect Continues
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WEEK ENDING 1/19/2024 Year-end wishful thinking dissolves, and it’s about time. Probabilities fade for significant March rate cuts. The voters of Iowa have spoken.
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What Could Go Wrong in the Economy?
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WEEK ENDING 1/12/2024 Treasury curve continues to steepen. Noisy CPI numbers for December; dovish PPI. What could go wrong in the economy? Municipal bonds heading into a challenging environment.
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Jobs, JOLTS, and Newly Realistic Markets
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WEEK ENDING 1/5/2024 We hope everyone had great holidays! Fixed income and equity markets continued year-end rallies. Realism befalls the markets in the first days of 2024.
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Turtle-dovish Fed
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WEEK ENDING 12/15/2023 Holiday markets rally after turtle-dovish message from Fed. Fed hints tightening finished; cuts to come. Dot plot changes significantly. Happy holidays to you, and a fantastic...
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Naughty or Nice
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WEEK ENDING 12/08/2023 Will Chairman Powell bring coal to the holiday party? The market has made the Fed’s job tougher! This week’s Fed meeting and inflation reports may add volatility to the holiday...
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A Santa Claus Rally?
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WEEK ENDING 12/01/2023 Chair Powell tries to calm fixed-income markets. 60% probability of a Q1 rate cut. Hostages released during last week's Israeli-Hamas cease-fire.
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Adding SMAs to Your Clients' Portfolios
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Serving Registered Independent Advisors (RIAs) is at the heart of what we do at CDI. Numerous RIA partners have come to us wanting to either incorporate or diversify their clients’ portfolios (more...
Taking a Pause to Give Thanks
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WEEK ENDING 11/17/2023 Fed’s dovish tone and positive inflation data knock yields off their peak. Government debt sales continue to climb. Happy Thanksgiving! “Thankfully,” we’re taking a pause from...
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Same Line, Different Speaker
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WEEK ENDING 11/10/2023 Moody’s moves US sovereign outlook to “negative.” Market participants’ outlooks and opinions mixed. Honoring our veterans.
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A Kindler Gentler Fed?
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WEEK ENDING 11/03/2023 A kinder, gentler Fed? Color us suspicious. A slowing jobs picture? What does it all mean for inflation?
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Trick or Treat? Hard or Soft Landing?
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WEEK ENDING 10/27/2023 Market focus shifting away from the Federal Reserve A primer on the tension between monetary and fiscal policies Return of the soft landing v. hard landing debate
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Now's the Time for Risk Tolerant Investors
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WEEK ENDING 10/20/2023 Chair Powell says inflation is too high, recommitting to a 2% target. “Slow” Joe Biden has a good week, garnering compliments from the unlikeliest sources. Jim Jordan taps out...
Geopolitical Risk Increases
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WEEK ENDING 10/13/2023 Rising geopolitical risk adds another consideration for the Federal Reserve. Supercore inflation is double the Fed's target. Yields rise in long end of the curve; tightens...
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Is it Time to Take Risks?
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WEEK ENDING 10/6/2023 McCarthy ousted as inmates take over the asylum. Fixed-income yields continue to move higher; investors leave bond funds for the safety of money market funds. Is this the moment...
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Congress Kicks the Can
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WEEK ENDING 9/29/2023 Government shutdown postponed until November 17. Will September PCE give Fed a reason to pause? September Muni yield backup led to underperformance; current yield attractive.