The MercadoLibre Paradox
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Over the past five years, MercadoLibre has grown both revenue and profit dramatically — yet its stock price has gone nowhere. Could this be an opportunity?
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City Different Investments
The MercadoLibre Paradox
What Investing Can Teach Us About March Madness
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We've officially entered my absolute favorite time of the sports calendar year. As millions of others around the country have done this past week, I sat down to fill out my bracket for the annual Van...
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Are Treasuries Still Safe?
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Since April, I've had a lot of conversations about whether Treasuries are still a viable safe haven investment. After “Liberation Day,” 10-year Treasuries sold off by ~50 basis points, creating a...
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Credit Crunch 4/24/23
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WEEK ENDING 4/21/2023 Highlights of the week: Is this the start of a credit crunch? Health of corporate credits is deteriorating. US economy is stalling, but not yet in a recession.
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"Wait And See"
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WEEK ENDING 4/14/2023 Highlights of the week: “Sticky prices” show no improvement in latest consumer price index. Another 25 basis points priced in for Fed’s May meeting. But what after that? Yield...
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The Vol Continues
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WEEK ENDING 4/6/2023 Highlights of the week: Inflation may be slowing but is still above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. Will inflation prove sticky, forcing the Fed to change its target and...
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Supercore
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WEEK ENDING 3/31/2023 Highlights of the week: 2% inflation: an outdated concept. Federal Reserve close to ending most aggressive interest rate hikes. CDI expects one more rate hike in May and then a...
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Buckle up for a wild ride
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WEEK ENDING 3/24/2023 Highlights of the week: J. Thaddeus Toad would like to welcome you to another wild ride: the fixed-income market. Domestic and international banks have grabbed the headlines for...
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Banking Failures
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WEEK ENDING 3/17/2023 Highlights of the week: Condolences to all of you with busted NCAA brackets; maybe not the only things busted… Our overview of the idiosyncratic banking failures and Bank Term...
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The Bailout
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WEEK ENDING 3/10/2023 Highlights of the week: Silicon Valley Bank fails due to poor diversification in its depositor base and too much duration in its fixed-income portfolio. We do not believe this...
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Diversity and Inclusion in Finance
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Sweta Singh admits that she fell into finance by chance: “You do something day in and day out, and then you fall in love with it. I think it is symbiotic — you enjoy your work, and then you pour more...
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BEAR OR BULL?
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WEEK ENDING 3/3/2023 Highlights of the week: As we await March’s data, we make cases for both bull and bear markets. The case for bear: a “reacceleration in interest rate hikes.” The case for bull: a...
FIXED INCOME MARKET INSIGHTS 2/27/23
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WEEK ENDING 2/24/2023 Highlights of the week: The markets are giving up positive returns for Lent. Inflation proves a pesky little bugger. A smart reader asked why we haven’t commented on the...
FIXED INCOME MARKET INSIGHTS 2/21/23
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WEEK ENDING 2/17/2023 Highlights of the week: Where is the recession? Federal Reserve is chasing neutral rate, and the market is catching up. Friday marks one year of the Russia-Ukraine war.
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FIXED INCOME MARKET INSIGHTS 2/13/23
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WEEK ENDING 2/10/2023 Highlights of the week: Chairman Powell stated disinflation “has begun” and added a big “but.” The Greek chorus of Fed officials that spoke in the week following Chairman Powell...
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FIXED INCOME MARKET INSIGHTS 2/6/23
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WEEK ENDING 2/3/2023 Highlights of the week: The Fed raised its targeted short-term rate by 0.25%. Chairman Powell’s message has been consistent since his Jackson Hole speech last summer. Why does...
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FIXED INCOME MARKET INSIGHTS 1/30/23
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WEEK ENDING 1/27/2023 Highlights of the week: This is a big economic week, with a 25-bps rate hike baked in for Wednesday. A complex economic picture makes the Federal Reserve's job extremely...
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FIXED INCOME MARKET INSIGHTS 1/23/23
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WEEK ENDING 1/20/2023 Highlights of the week: Except for jobs figures, the latest wave of economic numbers indicate weakness. “Don’t Fight the Fed!” — with a “data dependent” strategy, our durations...
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FIXED INCOME MARKET INSIGHTS 1/16/23
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WEEK ENDING 1/13/2023 Highlights of the week: CPI Edges down for December 2022 Disconnect between the Federal Reserve and Markets view on Inflation February Fed Hike speculated at 25bps
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FIXED INCOME MARKET INSIGHTS 01/09/23
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WEEK ENDING 1/6/2023 Highlights of the week: Happy New Year! 2023 starts with a strong December jobs report. The circus is in town, and that town is Washington, DC.
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FIXED INCOME MARKET INSIGHTS 12/19/22
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WEEK ENDING 12/16/2022 Highlights of the week: The Fed raises its targeted short-term interest rate by 50 basis points. Many market participants interpret Chairman Powell’s conference as “dovish.”...
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FIXED INCOME MARKET INSIGHTS 12/12
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WEEK ENDING 12/09/2022 Highlights of the week: Which story will the Fed tell the markets next week? "It’s a Wonderful Life” or “The Grinch Who Stole Christmas”? The Fed meets this week for the last...
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FIXED INCOME MARKET INSIGHTS 12/5
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WEEK ENDING 12/02/2022 Highlights of the week: Latest jobs reports show a resilient labor market. Q4 earnings estimates are finally coming down. Introducing our new acronym, BARB: “Bonds are Back.”
FIXED INCOME MARKET INSIGHTS 11/21
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WEEK ENDING 11/18/2022 Happy Thanksgiving to all our readers. We at City Different Investments (CDI) are very thankful for you and our clients, who continue to trust us with their assets. If you’re...
FIXED INCOME MARKET INSIGHTS 11/14
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WEEK ENDING 11/11/2022 Highlights of the week: October’s Consumer Price Index finally shows that Fed policy is working. China’s opening is inflationary for the United States. Midterms resulted in a...
FIXED INCOME MARKET INSIGHTS 11/07
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WEEK ENDING 11/04/2022 Highlights of the week: The Fed: Slower, Longer, Higher. Whether you look at the JOLTS numbers or Friday’s payroll numbers, the jobs market looks strong. No reason for the Fed...
FIXED INCOME MARKET INSIGHTS 10/31
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WEEK ENDING 10/28/2022 Highlights of the week: The Federal Reserve prepares for a possible 75 bps rate hike this Wednesday. The second biggest event is the nonfarm payroll report this Friday....