The MercadoLibre Paradox
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Over the past five years, MercadoLibre has grown both revenue and profit dramatically — yet its stock price has gone nowhere. Could this be an opportunity?
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Insights Blog
News, insights and thought leadership from the City Different team.
The MercadoLibre Paradox
What Investing Can Teach Us About March Madness
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We've officially entered my absolute favorite time of the sports calendar year. As millions of others around the country have done this past week, I sat down to fill out my bracket for the annual Van...
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Are Treasuries Still Safe?
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Since April, I've had a lot of conversations about whether Treasuries are still a viable safe haven investment. After “Liberation Day,” 10-year Treasuries sold off by ~50 basis points, creating a...
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Stubborn Inflation
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WEEK ENDING 4/26/2024 Real GDP growth slower than expected at 1.6% for Q1. Core PCE for the year is unchanged at 2.8%. Market pushes the probability of rate cuts (if any) to the end of the year.
Wall Street Transcript Interview
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Vin Walden recently sat down with the Wall Street Transcript to discuss potential dangers lurking in the stock market. Find out which companies he thinks investors should avoid. Electric Cars and AI...
Hidden Value Stocks Feature
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Excerpt from Hidden Value Stock Newsletter: Connor Browne and Rob MacDonald are two of the co-founders of City Different Investments. Both serve as portfolio managers, and Browne runs the firm....
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A Week of High Supply
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WEEK ENDING 4/19/2024 Resetting rate-cut expectations. 18 months of yield curve inversion. Will 10-year Treasury yields hit a 5% handle?
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Why Bonds Now
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We think it’s a good time to buy bonds because: The markets’ irrational exuberance about rate cuts in 2024 has been exercised. We started the year expecting 6-7 rate cuts, which dwindled to 2-3 in...
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Is Now the Time for Bonds?
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WEEK ENDING 4/12/2024 Hope springs eternal and dies hard. Equity market declines and rising Middle East tensions aid Treasury’s end-of-week recovery. Back to the future, at least in Arizona.
Informed Investor: Ladder, Barbell, Bullet
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We’re trying something new here — most of our content (and the investing content out there) falls into one of two camps:
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Spring Showers and Tax Season
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WEEK ENDING 4/5/2024 New support level for Treasury market with 10-year yields at 4.5%. Strong job numbers from Friday challenge rate cuts. April tax seasonality generally means outflow for money...
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Mutual Fund Outflows
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Separately Managed Accounts (SMAs) have grown from 3% of the total Municipal Market to approximately 23% market share in the last decade (as of 3/31/2023). Mutual funds, on the other hand, make up...
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Burning Down the House
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WEEK ENDING 3/22/2024 We will not be publishing a Weekly Commentary next week. We wish you all a happy holiday! The Capitol Hill Greatest Hits: “Another One Bites the Dust” & “Burning Down the House”...
What Easter egg hunts can teach us about investing
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When my three daughters were little, they loved Easter egg hunts. As I’m sure many of you also do, we’d put candy in plastic Easter eggs and hide them around the house. My high-energy oldest daughter...
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Surprising Inflation Numbers
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WEEK ENDING 3/15/2024 • Higher than expected core CPI and PPI. • FOMC should leave rates unchanged on Wednesday. • What’s a better buy? A 3-year T-bill or a money market fund?
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Is Bigger Always Better?
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Size can have its advantages — when going with a bigger firm; you may be hoping to experience lower fees because of volume and scale. But, it can also leave many advisors feeling like a “drop in the...
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State of the Markets
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WEEK ENDING 3/8/2024 • Impressive employment numbers. • One year anniversary of Silicon Valley Bank’s failure. • Will the Muni-Treasury ratios come back to their historical averages?
Decoding Consumer Dilemmas in a Strong Economy
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WEEK ENDING 3/1/2024 • Core PCE meets expectations. • Fed Chair to testify before Congress this week. • Why is the consumer still unhappy?
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Slow and Steady Wins the Race
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WEEK ENDING 2/23/2024 • Fed speakers lay out slow-and-steady rate policy. • Market reprices 2024 rate cuts. • Where is the new terminal or neutral rate for fed funds?
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The Market Breaks Hearts
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WEEK ENDING 2/16/2024 Inflation does not move in a straight line. There is still a lot of cash sloshing around the system. Congress takes two-week vacation with foreign aid on their desks and...
Penalty Kicks and Fixed Income
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“Don't fight the Fed” — it’s an adage for a reason, and it’s one we believe in. Why? Because history has mostly demonstrated the Federal Reserve, with its monetary policy tools, is overwhelmingly...
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Dive Into Markets Adjusting and Repricing
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WEEK ENDING 2/9/2024 Fed still set on cutting rates this year despite strong economy and slowing inflation. Investment Grade Corporate Bond Market repricing to new rate cuts scenario. Banks expect...
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"Shake it Off"
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WEEK ENDING 2/2/2024 Fed takes March easing off the table, and the market buries it. Friday’s jobs report does not reflect a slowing economy. Republicans and their pundits could be picking on the...
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The World Stage Grows Grimmer
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WEEK ENDING 1/26/2024 GDP and core PCE data trends in the right direction. Fed meets this week with no expectations of rate cuts. Hong Kong judge orders China’s Evergrande to liquidate.
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Investing in a Changing Climate
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U.S. homeowners are facing the dual challenges of more frequent weather events as well as disappearing property insurance. One company has been steadfast in insuring coastal properties in Florida for...
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The January Effect Continues
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WEEK ENDING 1/19/2024 Year-end wishful thinking dissolves, and it’s about time. Probabilities fade for significant March rate cuts. The voters of Iowa have spoken.
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What Could Go Wrong in the Economy?
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WEEK ENDING 1/12/2024 Treasury curve continues to steepen. Noisy CPI numbers for December; dovish PPI. What could go wrong in the economy? Municipal bonds heading into a challenging environment.