Turning Macro Anxiety into Portfolio Opportunity

Everywhere you look right now, headlines seem dour: the dollar is weakening, inflation is simmering, geopolitics are rocky (at best)... it’s enough to worry even seasoned investors. But there’s always something in the macro picture that can distract you; anxiety isn’t a strategy, though. Yes there are headwinds investors should be watching, but there are also plenty of opportunities out there if you have a playbook (i.e. an investment framework) and maintain a long-term perspective.

Start with what matters: your future purchasing power

The U.S. dollar has fallen roughly 11% through the first half of 2025 (the steepest decline in 50+ years). That slide isn’t random: the current administration has adopted a strategy of devaluing the currency to spur exports and domestic manufacturing jobs.

Most of our clients live and spend in U.S. dollars. The whole point of investing — deferring consumption now to afford more later — is to protect and grow that future purchasing power. If the dollar weakens over time, a portfolio concentrated in U.S. earners risks falling short (even if headline returns in USD look ok on paper). Imports cost more, dollar margins erode, your vacation abroad suddenly feels pricier… you get the idea.

Moreover, current U.S. tariff policies hurt U.S. importers, which face two unappetizing choices: absorb higher input costs (sacrifice profits) or raise prices (sacrifice volumes). Some large retailers (like Home Depot and Walmart) have already telegraphed selective price increases. Either path pressures earnings and hurts stock prices. You don’t have to forecast policy to respect how this math usually flows through to an income statement.

That doesn’t mean “go all-in on foreign”... but it does mean thinking intentionally about where a company earns, what currency its revenues are tied to, and how global trade dynamics flow through to margins.

What to own when the macro is messy

At City Different Investments, we’re not in the business of macro calls for sport — we strive to own durable companies that can succeed across a range of outcomes. Two examples from our global strategies illustrate our positioning.

Cameco Corp. (CCJ): critical fuel from a friendly neighbor

If you want non-U.S. exposure with real strategic value, start in a safe, friendly jurisdiction. Canada’s Cameco — one of the world’s largest uranium producers — sits squarely in a sweet spot (and we’ve sung its praises in the past).

An appealing backdrop:

• Tightening supply/demand: Kazatomprom (the world’s largest uranium producer, based in Kazakhstan) recently announced it will cut production by ~10% in 2026. That alone could remove 5% of global primary supply. Pair that with projections that uranium demand for reactors will rise by one-third to 86,000 tonnes by 2030 and nearly double to 150,000 tonnes by 2040… all while today’s mines could see outputs halve over the same stretch? That imbalance is hard to ignore.
  
  
• Policy tailwinds: A broader nuclear revival is underway — the re-start of the Palisades Plant in Michigan is just one of many developments underscoring that trajectory.
  
  
• Geopolitical and tariff resilience: With the current U.S. pro-nuclear posture (and limited domestic uranium supply), we view broad-brush tariff risk to Cameco as low. And if the dollar weakens, commodity prices could preserve “true” economics at the producer level.
  
  
• Currency mix without chaos: Not all international risks are created equal; see Canada’s Cameco.

Mercado Libre (MELI): owning the rails of LatAm’s digital economy

Mercado Libre is the dominant e-commerce and fintech platform in Latin America. It benefits from many secular trends (smartphone adoption, commerce moving online, robotics, etc) as well as scale and network effects (we first profiled MELI here).

                                 Source: MELI’s February 2025 Investor presentation

How MELI fits our framework:

• Currency diversification: Revenue is spread across several currencies — a basket that can benefit from dollar weakness over time.
  
  
• Operating leverage to supply shifts: As global trade patterns rebalance (including Asian goods that might otherwise have come to the U.S.), additional supply flows into MELI’s marketplace — supporting selection, price discovery, and growth.
  
  
• Category leadership: Owning the platform — not just a brand — means you control the infrastructure for digital activity, not one store’s fortunes.

Mercado Libre appears to have a profitable business with a long runway for international growth.

The playbook

• Think in currencies, not just countries. Where the cash is earned matters. Balance dollar earners with high-quality businesses that earn in other currencies.
  
  
• Prefer pricing power to price takers. If tariffs or input costs move against you, can the business pass them through without impairing demand?
  
  
• Bias toward strategic assets. Critical inputs (like uranium) and critical platforms (like payments and commerce rails) play long-term roles in almost any economic environment.
  
  
• Be selective about jurisdictions. Global doesn’t mean careless. We heavily favor stable, rule-of-law jurisdictions.

Unsettling macroeconomic news can paralyze investors who chase headlines, but it can also reward those who execute on a time-tested, long-term investment strategy. In the current environment, we place heavy emphasis on durable economics, real pricing power, and sensible currency diversification.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
This post is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or personalized investment advice. The information and statistics contained herein have been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed.  Any projections, market outlooks, or estimates are forward-looking statements and are based upon certain assumptions. Other events that were not taken into account may occur and may significantly affect the returns or performance of these investments.  Any projections, outlooks, or assumptions are subject to change without notice, and should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There can be no guarantee that any strategy will be successful. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. Investments highlighted were selected based on objective, non-performance-based selection criteria. Names are subject to change.

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, product or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly herein will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. You should not assume that any discussion or information contained herein serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from City Different Investments. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability above to his/her individual situation or any specific issue discussed, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing.

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